TRANSFORMACION DEL PERU

La Política Nacional de Competitividad y Productividad (PNCP), preparada por el MEF en 2019, es un buen paso adelante, al menos muestra una predisposición y un cambio de aire a lo que siempre hemos estado acostumbrados a escuchar de la clase política del país. Dados los cambios actuales en el mundo, busca reposicionar el país para el bien de todos los peruanos; Y esto va más allá del crecimiento e incluso del desarrollo económico. Ya lo había indicado, puede haber un crecimiento económico empobrecedor si las circunstancias no existen en igualdad de oportunidades. El PIB per cápita sigue siendo un mal indicador en una sociedad muy desigual. El progreso en términos de crecimiento del PIB es muy incompleto.

The developed countries have already gone through what Peru recently wants to go through, but in another context that is currently more dynamic and with profound global uncertainties. For example, Singapore, led under a socialist dictatorial government in its beginnings with a strong economic market approach, a capitalist model, a benchmark in terms of anti-corruption, economic development, health and education, today faces the same problems that countries have gone through. developed, as for example: increasingly aged population, high dependence on foreign investment, high social and economic inequality, high pollution, product of seeing only the great averages in terms of per capita. These models and dozens of success stories of those countries, shaped what the World Economic Forum has theoretically summed up in the Global Competitiveness Report (GCR). Already the basic theory to follow to improve competitiveness.

En los últimos años ha habido otros informes que intentan construir un ranking sobre la felicidad, el Informe de Felicidad Mundial (RMF), donde los países nórdicos encabezan la lista, lejos de Estados Unidos, China, Corea del Sur, Singapur, Japón y otras economías desarrolladas. . No siempre ser un país desarrollado implica tener gente feliz, esto es importante al final del día, porque la gente no está en la tierra para ver un aumento del PIB, el comercio, las exportaciones, el consumo; pero debemos ser felices y ahí es donde hemos roto la armonía entre lo social y lo económico, hasta el punto de que han sido paradigmas en conflicto, de hecho, dio lugar a las discrepancias entre el socialismo y el capitalismo, aunque disfrazado de propietario de Los factores de producción, pero al final, en esencia, eran los mismos. Y realmente el hombre es siempre un ser social y económico al mismo tiempo, Entonces, este socialismo y capitalismo fue un error fatal de la humanidad que involucró guerras y demoras. Y cabe destacar que la felicidad no tiene nada que ver con la alegría, los estados de ánimo, la risa y la amistad, sino que tiene que ver con el equilibrio entre un grupo de factores que afectan a cada persona.

La Política Nacional de Competitividad y Productividad está bien para ser un primer ejercicio, pero considero que es un marco obsoleto para producir efectos en los próximos 10 a 20 años, que es el horizonte donde se pueden ver los resultados, y en qué momento el mundo será diferente. Cómo será el mundo en 2030, por ejemplo, mediante la recopilación y el cruce de información: primero, en 2014, China se convirtió en el mayor poder económico del mundo en términos de paridad de poder de compra y esto reconfigura los escenarios de negocios, cultura, inversiones, relaciones y efectos. , uno de ellos es la guerra comercial de Estados Unidos y China a través de aranceles, luego la guerra tecnológica entre esos países, luego la guerra financiera en curso que se definirá a fines de 2019, que podría ser peor que las anteriores y no sabemos cómo Termina esta lucha para ser la primera potencia mundial.

En segundo lugar, véase la cuarta revolución industrial, que se proyecta un crecimiento sin empleos, mejores universales, automatización e interminables cambios radicales e incluso un aumento exponencial de la productividad que no alcanzará el planeta para proporcionar insumos; es entonces cuando los modelos de consumo cambiarán, de hecho, ya sea, la economía del intercambio, la economía circular y la economía sin intermediación. Los países no están preparados para esto, pero la tecnología ha ganado durante mucho tiempo la ciencia, la política y la clase empresarial. Con las revoluciones industriales anteriores se redujo el número de niños por hogar, Buscar modelos de bienestar a través de una alta recaudación de impuestos para el estado del mar responsable de administrar y prestar servicios públicos; pero si cada vez hay menos trabajadores que se traducen en los fondos de jubilación que no se ha calificado, ya que se ha reemplazado por la robótica, que contribuyen al fondo de las pensiones, y si la población ha envejecido, hay más jubilados que nuevos contribuyentes, ¿Cómo compensar los desequilibrios fiscales de los modelos de buena vida basada en la deuda? Estos son los principales problemas. ¿Cómo se compensarán los desequilibrios fiscales de los modelos de buena vida basada en la deuda? Estos son los principales problemas. ¿Cómo se compensarán los desequilibrios fiscales de los modelos de buena vida basada en la deuda? Estos son los principales problemas.

Third, we will be a billion more people, 10 years older on average and almost 90% living in cities. The developed countries are already facing this, like Japan, the European countries for example. It is a lesson for Peru, to have it within the framework of transformation of the country. Therefore, the concept of retirement should be reconsidered, perhaps eliminated and an alternative scheme created. In the era where value is knowledge, retired people have much to contribute to society, from values, social models, experiences, history, education in the home, etc. Within this government plans this key edge must be present. In addition, there are studies that depression is associated with retirement, and this accelerates various types of diseases, feelings of worthlessness, exclusion and seclusion in society and productivity. This is important to rethink designing educational models not for work, but for life and business models not to profit, but to contribute to fixed costs by withdrawing much of the tax burden to the state. If we live in the cities, we must rethink the concept of the city, because nothing is done about it, the cities of the country are a disaster; narrow streets, without parks, without futuristic ecological urban planning, again the urban habilitations are based on models of 270 years ago, when the first industrial revolution took place. We must design from now, smart, eco-sustainable cities.

Fourth, reengineering of financial systems globally. There is great uncertainty that the economy is based on trust, without real support, and the worst has created a system of interference in the real economy through monetary policy, which have caused global financial crises. The supply and demand of goods and services have natural advances, however, when monetary policy enters it distorts the equilibria, because the economy is supposedly heating up, raising interest rates, depriving many of them of access to goods, which with the same money, it is no longer possible to acquire them, there can not be more injustice than that. To top it all, junk bonds are packaged, marketed, and when bubbles burst, governments apply bank bailouts with the taxes of the population. There are already several theoretical, scientific and economic frameworks to change these models. For example the defenders of the Austrian theory; the same Bill Gates, Heather Cox, etc. MIT, created the report on the end of the banks (DIGITAL BANKING MANIFESTO: THE END OF BANKS?); Sweden initiates its cryptocurrency process at the beginning by the central bank, then based on blockchain being a 100% traceable economy, without evasion, and without future banks, the amount of examples follow. There are more acidic opinions like “The banks are trying to be cool and modern, and build super-cool fronts … But it’s like putting a lipstick on a pig; Ultimately, it’s still a pig and the new front end is still running on a terrible digital extreme. “ — Mark Mullen Executive Director Atom, Durham, United Kingdom. Endless activist organizations, for an economy without banks. Technologies such as Bitcoin and altcoins to replace the intermediation of money, etc. This must be in a strategic plan of Peru, because if the technology already makes it viable, it is then a matter of time to have progress.

The National Policy of Competitiveness and Productivity does not focus attention on key areas where we must place ourselves in the fourth industrial revolution. For example, Singapore wants to lead the big data in ASIA, UK lead the Fintech technologies and process, China leading the 5G, among other examples. It is key that Peru does not remain with an old frame of reference, but project and elaborate a complement based on things like in what position and what competitive and comparative advantages we must and want to have in 10 or 20 years, to start building , seeing how the world will be in 2030, in 2040 and 2050 for example where the average life expectancy level could be between 80 and 85 years, if not more. To the point that as technology advances and the globalization of technology, we could easily reach 100 years or more. By extending life on natural genetics, practically and progressively we are moving towards artificial beings, because genetically it is probable that we should already have been dead, but artificially we will reach those levels of life.

Technology and digitalization must radically diminish the bureaucracy, and implies reducing the expense for the state of the number of people working in this sector. There are up to three unnecessary levels, when a single, more horizontal level would be sufficient, interconnected with the citizens and with the support of real-time technologies to address and solve real problems, avoiding spending and bureaucracy. Here there are many options, from smart money, block chains, smart contracts, simplification of the laws and therefore of the chart. Just read the first two articles of our constitution and you will see that it speaks of rights and liberties; moreover, we talk about the defense of life, dignity and respect; however, then issues such as abortion and gender focus are discussed; that is, the constitution is for pleasure ?. Our constitution is complex, full of desires, rights and freedoms, when it should have another focus on the side of duties for example, and by complement it is assumed that no one is prohibited from doing what the law does not mandate. For example, instead of putting 100 rights, it is simply replaceable by obligations or prohibitions in 2 lines. As a duty not to physically or psychologically attack any person and ready, by complement, people can do what the law does not prohibit them, while not physically or psychologically. It is only an example, but it should be simplified, because of the Magna Carta, after they release a complexity of codes and norms, which complicates society, lends itself to bureaucracy, interpretations, injustices, etc. I like the ten commandments, there commands prohibitions or obligations, does not send rights, so it is easy to learn and practice them. I also like the three maxims of the Incas, about not stealing, not lying, not being idle.

If a course is not clear, there are contradictions in the government and institutions. For example, some time ago I published a first approach to transform the financial and insurance sector (see), however, the Fintech regulation is not closed, data is not worked, but hard data protection rules are issued, when the data is of the people and the state must facilitate the systemic, voluntary access to said data to speed up the operations in the country, Facebook makes profitable and makes a lot of money with the data of the people, in the same way, the state must facilitate that the data of the people are interconnected and available for the same people to use and can make their information profitable, or getting better uses, offers, promotions, thanks to their information.

In conclusion, there are good intentions and advances, but it is insufficient, since they are old (but necessary) recipes, but we must complement them with future projections and see what role we want to play and in what we will build competitive and comparative advantages in the fourth industrial revolution. And more than advantages, better to build adaptive advantages, which is what new think tanks are putting together worldwide, than a new framework that will leave behind comparative and competitive advantages.

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Passionate researcher of the phenomena of the fourth industrial revolution. Founder and Director of juancotrina.com

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Juan Cotrina

Passionate researcher of the phenomena of the fourth industrial revolution. Founder and Director of juancotrina.com